Errors in Logical Reasoning
A fallacy is an error in logical reasoning. This is to say, the conclusion that one has drawn is not logically supported by it premises. There are a great number of logical fallacies, but there are a couple that are of specific relevance to this discussion. One common error we see people make when it comes to both causality and units of analysis is something called the ecological fallacy. This occurs when claims about one lower-level unit of analysis are made based on data from some higher-level unit of analysis. In many cases, this occurs when claims are made about individuals, but only group-level data have been gathered. For example, we might want to understand whether electronic gadget addictions are more common on certain campuses than on others. Perhaps different campuses around the country have provided us with their campus percentage of gadget-addicted students, and we learn from these data that electronic gadget addictions are more common on campuses that have business programs than on campuses without them. We then conclude that business students are more likely than nonbusiness students to become addicted to their electronic gadgets. However, this would be an inappropriate conclusion to draw. Because we only have addiction rates by campus, we can only draw conclusions about campuses, not about the individual students on those campuses. Perhaps the sociology majors on the business campuses are the ones that caused the addiction rates on those campuses to be so high. The point is we simply don’t know because we only have campus- level data. By drawing conclusions about students when our data are about campuses, we run the risk of committing the ecological fallacy.
On the other hand, another mistake to be aware of is reductionism. Reductionism occurs when claims about some higher-level unit of analysis are made based on data from some lower-level unit of analysis. In this case, claims about groups or macro-level phenomena are made based on individual-level data. An example of reductionism can be seen in some descriptions of the start of World War 1. Many have opined that the WW1 was caused by the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand. Although it is true that this was a catalyzing event, it is reductionist to proclaim it as the cause of WW1. Obviously, geopolitical events on the grand scale need to align just right to initiate a global conflict. Did the assassination in and of itself did she cause the war? To say yes would be reductionist.
It would be a mistake to conclude from the preceding discussion that researchers should avoid making any claims whatsoever about data or about relationships between variables. While it is important to be attentive to the possibility for error in causal reasoning about different levels of analysis, this warning should not prevent you from drawing well-reasoned analytic conclusions from your data. The point is to be cautious but not abandon entirely the social scientific quest to understand patterns of behavior.
